was brought up, like most Englishmen, to respect free trade not only as an
economic doctrine which a rational and instructed person could not doubt but
almost as a part of the moral law," wrote John Maynard Keynes in 1933. And
indeed, to this day, nothing gets an economist's blood boiling more quickly
than a challenge to the doctrine of free trade.
Yet in that essay of 70 years ago, Keynes himself was beginning to
question some of the assumptions supporting free trade. The question today
is whether the case for free trade made two centuries ago is undermined by
the changes now evident in the modern global economy.
Two recent examples illustrate this concern. Over the next three years, a
major New York securities firm plans to replace its team of 800 American
software engineers, who each earns about $150,000 per year, with an equally
competent team in India earning an average of only $20,000. Second, within
five years the number of radiologists in this country is expected to decline
significantly because M.R.I. data can be sent over the Internet to Asian
radiologists capable of diagnosing the problem at a small fraction of the
cost.
These anecdotes suggest a seismic shift in the world economy brought on
by three major developments. First, new political stability is allowing
capital and technology to flow far more freely around the world. Second,
strong educational systems are producing tens of millions of intelligent,
motivated workers in the developing world, particularly in India and China,
who are as capable as the most highly educated workers in the developed
world but available to work at a tiny fraction of the cost. Last,
inexpensive, high-bandwidth communications make it feasible for large work
forces to be located and effectively managed anywhere.
We are concerned that the United States may be entering a new economic
era in which American workers will face direct global competition at almost
every job level — from the machinist to the software engineer to the Wall
Street analyst. Any worker whose job does not require daily face-to-face
interaction is now in jeopardy of being replaced by a lower-paid, equally
skilled worker thousands of miles away. American jobs are being lost not to
competition from foreign companies, but to multinational corporations, often
with American roots, that are cutting costs by shifting operations to
low-wage countries.
Most economists want to view these changes through the classic prism of
"free trade," and they label any challenge as protectionism. But these new
developments call into question some of the key assumptions supporting the
doctrine of free trade.
The case for free trade is based on the British economist David Ricardo's
principle of "comparative advantage" — the idea that each nation should
specialize in what it does best and trade with others for other needs. If
each country focused on its comparative advantage, productivity would be
highest and every nation would share part of a bigger global economic pie.
However, when Ricardo said that free trade would produce shared gains for
all nations, he assumed that the resources used to produce goods — what he
called the "factors of production" — would not be easily moved over
international borders. Comparative advantage is undermined if the factors of
production can relocate to wherever they are most productive: in today's
case, to a relatively few countries with abundant cheap labor. In this
situation, there are no longer shared gains — some countries win and others
lose.
When Ricardo proposed his theory in the early 1800's, major factors of
production — soil, climate, geography and even most workers — could not be
moved to other countries. But today's vital factors of production — capital,
technology and ideas — can be moved around the world at the push of a
button. They are as easy to export as cars.
This is a very different world than Ricardo envisioned. When American
companies replace domestic employees with lower-cost foreign workers in
order to sell more cheaply in home markets, it seems hard to argue that this
is the way free trade is supposed to work. To call this a "jobless recovery"
is inaccurate: lots of new jobs are being created, just not here in the
United States.
In the past, we have supported free trade policies. But if the case for
free trade is undermined by changes in the global economy, our policies
should reflect the new realities. While some economists and elected
officials suggest that all we need is a robust retraining effort for
laid-off workers, we do not believe retraining alone is an answer, because
almost the entire range of "knowledge jobs" can be done overseas. Likewise,
we do not believe that offering tax incentives to companies that keep
American jobs at home can compensate for the enormous wage differentials
driving jobs offshore.
America's trade agreements need to to reflect the new reality. The first
step is to begin an honest debate about where our economy really is and
where we are headed as a nation. Old-fashioned protectionist measures are
not the answer, but the new era will demand new thinking and new solutions.
And one thing is certain: real and effective solutions will emerge only when
economists and policymakers end the confusion between the free flow of goods
and the free flow of factors of production.
Charles Schumer is the senior senator from New York. Paul Craig
Roberts was assistant secretary of the Treasury for economic policy in the
Reagan administration.